What impact could Trump’s tariff war have on Canadian military exports, the F-35 fighter jet purchase, critical minerals and human rights?

Published by Brent Patterson on February 2, 2025February 2, 2025

Video still of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s media conference, February 1, 2025.

Yesterday, Saturday February 1, CBC reported: “[US president Donald] Trump launched a trade war against Canada … by imposing a 25 per cent tariff on virtually all goods from this country — an unprecedented strike against a long-standing ally that has the potential to throw the economy into a tailspin.”

That article adds: “Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced late Saturday the federal government will hit back… To start, Canada will slap 25 per cent tariffs on $30 billion worth of American goods coming into Canada as of [February 4]. The tariffs will then be applied to another $125 billion worth of American imports in three weeks’ time.”

The export of Canadian military goods

It is not clear if the Trump tariffs will be applied to the more than $1 billion of Canadian-produced military “goods” exported to the US every year.

One week ago, the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries (CADSI) commented: “CADSI is aware that any U.S. tariffs applied to Canadian #defenceexports would have a significant negative impact on our members, and on the highly integrated Canada-U.S. defence industrial base.”

To avert this “negative impact”, CADSI asked its member groups: “Can you provide examples of Canadian-made defence goods that are mission-critical to the U.S. and would be impacted by the anticipated tariffs?”

One example could be Ottawa-based Gastops. The Breach has reported: “Gastops is the only company in the world that produces engine sensors that go into U.S.-made F-35 combat jets—including the ones dropping 2,000 pound bombs in Gaza.”

Restrictions on the export of critical minerals?

The CBC article yesterday also noted: “Trudeau said there is more non-tariff trade action coming to try to force Trump’s hand and get him to call off the hostilities. Those actions are still to be decided but could include measures like restrictions on the export of critical minerals and energy products to the U.S. and a move to block American companies from bidding on government contracts, he said.”

In May 2024, Washington, DC-based CBC correspondent Alexander Panetta reported: “The U.S. military has, for the first time in generations, spent public money on minerals projects inside Canada: nearly $15 million US to mine and process copper, gold, graphite and cobalt in Quebec and the Northwest Territories. It might not be the last: Officials expect additional cross-border announcements under the more than half-billion-dollar U.S. program. These minerals are vital ingredients in an endless array of civilian and military products — including medicine, batteries, electronics, engines, cars, planes, drones and munitions.”

For example, by one estimate, every F-35 fighter jet has about 920 pounds of rare earth elements (a subset of crucial minerals) built into its engines and electronics

That CBC article further highlighted: “The cash comes with no strings attached — for now [but] in a national-security crisis, the U.S. military could demand these supplies — say in the event of a severe trade war, or worse, a shooting war in the Asia-Pacific.”

Could trade war impact the purchase of F-35 fighter jets?

Yesterday, Global News reporter Paul Johnson asked British Columbia NDP premier David Eby: “We are about to buy a bunch of surveillance planes from Boeing [16 P-8A Poseidon aircraft for $10 billion], replace our fighter jets in a multi-billion dollar deal from Lockheed Martin [$19 billion on 88 F-35s that will be assembled in Fort Worth, Texas], might it not be time for Canada to start considering the timing and the terms of major investments in the American economy like that at this point?”

Eby responded: “The prime minister will speak for the national approach… For major defence expenditures, which I know is a priority for the Americans, for the president, he wants to see Canada putting additional money into defence, well, we are all happy to do that work together, but these tariffs will force Canada into procuring from other countries.”

Video still: BC premier Eby responds to question on “defence” procurement.

The Trudeau government decided to purchase the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jet in January 2023. The other main contender in the competition had been Saab. This Swedish aerospace firm had pledged to build the Gripen E fighter jet in Canada.

The first four of the 88 F-35s being purchased are expected to arrive in 2026. It’s not clear the payment schedule for Canada, but in the past Canada has made payments in April for its participation in the F-35 program.

Implications for human rights

In March 2024, Kelsey Gallagher of the Canadian peace research institute Project Ploughshares “conservatively” estimated that: “The total annual value of Canadian military exports to the United States exceeds one billion dollars. However, the Government of Canada does not regulate the majority of Canada’s military transfers to the United States; the total is, therefore, not officially reported or known.”

The Defence Production Sharing Agreement (DPSA) means that Canada does not report on most transfers to the US, nor does it require specific permits for them.

This lack of transparency is troubling given William D. Hartung, a Senior Research Fellow at the Washington, DC-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, has argued that US arms sales have played a role in the “enabling of human rights abuses”.

In October 2022, Hartung wrote: “The United States routinely sells to undemocratic regimes, many of which commit major human rights abuses. As of 2021, the most recent year for which full statistics are available, the U.S. has provided weapons and training to 31 nations that Freedom House has defined as ‘not free’. …As [Yale Law School professor] Asli Bali noted in a Quincy Institute issue brief, ‘What is needed is not selective human rights conditionality but an end to arms sales to abusive regimes.’”

David Swanson, the Virginia-based executive director of World Beyond War, has also highlighted that since World War II the United States has overthrown at least 36 governments, interfered in at least 86 foreign elections, attempted to assassinate over 50 foreign leaders, and dropped bombs on people in over 30 countries.

We continue to follow this situation.

The CADSI-organized CANSEC arms show in Ottawa this coming May 28-29, 2025 could be a significant moment where these issues further come to the fore.

Twitter photo of US Ambassador David L. Cohen (right) at CANSEC 2023.